Mets Draft Analysis

Mets Draft Analysis

Written By: Nathan Hutchinson
Follow him on Twitter: @hutch1760
Follow Prospects Worldwide on Twitter: @ProspectsWorldW

1.19: CF Pete Crow-Armstrong – Harvard Westlake HS
18 Years Old – Bats: L – Throws: L – 6’1 – 180Ibs – ETA: 2024

Present/Future Grades

Crow-Armstrong, one of the most famous prospects entering the 2020 Draft. After a lackluster summer in 2019, PCA had his stock drop and players like Zac Veen and Robert Hassel overtook him as the top prep OF. At 6’1 180Ibs PCA has the build of a CF with speed and power projection. PCA was the 4th prep OF taken.

PCA has a smooth Left-Handed swing, his lower half is very inconsistent and leads to his body being out of sync at points. His hands stay inside the ball and he rarely drags the bat through the zone, he controls his barrel well when in sync with his lower half. The present bat speed is above average and helps him creates all kinds of pop.

When it comes to PCA’s ability to hit, he’s very good and has the potential to be an above-average hitter. The power projection is where the potential superstar comps come up, PCA has a lot of pop and ball sounds different coming off his bat. The issue is the inconsistency in his contact, over the summer of 2019 and spring 2020, PCA had some swing and miss concerns. The talent is there, no question, but the inconsistency will need to smoothen out.

Defensively, PCA is the best pure CF in the draft. His range, speed, read on the ball and arm are all average or better. Athletically PCA is special, plus runner and plus instincts on the bases and the outfield.

PCA has the tools to potentially be an everyday CF with a good average, good power, and plus field and run.  The floor is relatively low, only time will tell with PCA. The reward is worth the risk.

2.52: RHP JT Ginn – Mississippi State
21 Years Old – Bats: R – Throws: R – 6’2 – 200Ibs – ETA: 2023

Present/Future Grades

Entering 2020 JT Ginn was a potential top 15 pick, but an arm injury to start 2020 raised concerns about his overall health. After an impressive freshman season, 3.13 ERA in 86.1 innings, Ginn was expected to continue on his success in 2020, and once the season was canceled, Ginn was already out for the season so his stock took a tumble, which left him available for the Mets in the 2nd round.

Mechanically, Ginn is sound but still has questions about his long-term health. Once he made it to college, he toned down his delivery and made it much more projectable. Arm health is the only question that comes with Ginn’s mechanics.

Ginn has one of the better two-pitch mixes in the draft. His FB sits 92-95 and can reach 97, but it doesn’t miss barrels at a high enough level for me to give it a plus or better grade. His SL on the other hand is extremely effectivity, sits in the mid-80s with sweep and depth, Ginn can also shape this pitch into a CB or a CU.

His CH has developed very well since high school where it was viewed as a below-average pitch. Since then Ginn has worked on keeping the same arm slot and arm speed. The CH has nice fade and plays well vs both LHB and RHB.

Ginn, like PCA, has the talent without a doubt to be an MLB player. Questions about his health and his role in the future. As a starter the 3-pitch mix is solid, but another average or better offering could help Ginn end up more than just a backend of the rotation starter. As a reliever, his FB/SL will play very well, and he will be effective in that role. Another high risk, high reward pick for the Mets.

2.69: CF Isaiah Greene – Corona Senior HS
18 Years Old – Bats: L – Throws: L – 6’1 – 185Ibs – ETA: 2024

Present/Future Grades

One of the biggest risers of the short 2020 season, after a strong summer showcase circuit Greene was on some radars but after a very impressive short 2020 season, Greene was a notable name in the prep OF class. The Mets were rewarded will the comp round pick after losing Zack Wheeler to the Phillies and selected another talented prep OF in Isaiah Greene.

Greene has a decent swing but relies on his hands, bat speed and barrel control more than his fundamentals in his swing. Long term, if this continues there will be problems, but the Mets development should be able to help, and this will also lead to potentially more power.

Greene has shown that he can hit and get on base at an effective rate. The power hasn’t developed yet but the frame projection and more of a launch-oriented approach could lead to more power. Although Greene will be more than fine with his line drive approach he has right now.

Defensively, Greene will stick in CF as his double-plus speed and average arm project extremely well in CF. On the bases, Greene is aggressive and will steal bases at the next level, his instincts are continuing to improve, and he is becoming smarter on the bases.

Greene has the raw tools to potentially be a top of the order CF with a high average and 20+ steals. The swing issues will need to be addressed for Greene to make it vs better and more effective pitchers. 

3.91: SS Anthony Walters – San Diego State
22 Years Old – Bats: R – Throws: R – 6’1 – 185Ibs – ETA: 2023

Present/Future Grades

Walters undrafted out of high school attended the University of California, where he struggled mightily. He then transferred to Mount San Antione College, where he turned his career around. In 2019 he tore his ACL and missed the entire season, and as a redshirt junior, he transferred to San Diego State. In the short 2020 season, Walters hit .271/.333/.371 with 1HR, 5BB, and 17K. The Mets selected Walters in the 3rd round as a sever under slot after taking 3 high-level prospects before Walters.

Walters is a relatively unknown prospect, a very little track record of hitting. His swing is unorthodox, he stands straight up in his load with a high leg kick. It seems rhythm and timing are big factors in Walters’s approach.  

Walters makes hard contact and has quick hands through the zone. When swinging his body comes down to the ball and drives through it. Walters has little patience and discipline at the plate when he’s out of sync and his timing is off, he struggles, but when he can time up and stay in rhythm, he can drive the baseball.

Defensively, Walters is solid at SS, he has good hands and feet, with a good enough arm to stick on the left side of the diamond. He also has some versatility, in 2017 at Cal, he started games at 2B, 3B, LF, and CF. His best fit is most likely at 2B. Athletically, Walters is a fine athlete who moves well.

For a 20k 3rd round pick, Walters is a solid choice, he awkward swing and poor launch angle are reasons why he may not have success. The raw power and strengths are there, along with good defensive tools. Walters has some potential but may not be more than a good depth minor leaguer.

4.120: C Matthew Dyer – Arizona
21 Years Old – Bats: R – Throws: R – 6’4 -187Ibs – ETA: 2023

Present/Future Grades

Dyer began his college career at Oregon, where he had some decent success as a freshman, but then transferred to Arizona. In 2019 he slashed .393/.480/.571 in 200PA before going undrafted once again. Returning to Arizona for his senior season, Dyer struggled in the short 2020 season. In the 4th round, the Mets selected Dyer and played him just under slot.

As a hitter Dyer has had some success in the PAC-12 conference. Dyer has an athletic swing; he starts open and uses a toe tap to stay in rhythm. His hands start low and load back towards his head before stepping towards the pitcher ready to hit. There’s some raw power in Dyer’s frame, lots of room for growth, and added strength.

Defensively, Dyer has plenty of options. He profiles well at multiply position, at C he’s athletic and throws well. In CF/LF he can run and throw at a good level and at 2B he has the range and hands. Plenty of options for Dyer. As an athlete, Dyer runs well and moves well in the field and behind the plate.

Dyer has some potential to a super-utility player with good all-round skills both at the plate and in the field. The Mets’ safest pick so far, Dyer has a very high floor but also has a low ceiling.

5.150: RHP Eric Orze – University of New Orleans
22 Years Old – Bats: R – Throws: R – 6’3 – 185Ibs – ETA: 2023

Present/Future Grades

Many people already know the story of Orze, the two-time cancer survivor is an inspiration for many people. After his freshman season in 2018, he was diagnosed with cancer for the second time. After missing the whole 2019 season battling and defeating cancer, Orze returned in 2020 and was good in limited action. He was selected in the 5th round by the Mets.

His mechanics scream reliever and that’s were he projected to end up at 6’3 185Ibs he’s lanky and deceptive on the mound as well as smooth and quick while creating downhill momentum at ease. His arm is quick and twitchy, he stays connected to his core very well. He also uses his lower half very effectively.

His FB sits 92-95 with sink and ASR, the command is solid and works well when behind and ahead of batters. His SP is his best pitch, it sits low-80s and moves downhill crazy effectively. His SL is solid and projects as average, it plays like a SL/CU hybrid and moves well. Wit decent depth and okay shape with the ability to change velocity.

Orze projects a reliever and with his good FB/SP mix he should be effective at the next level. For 20k in the 5th round, Orze has a good arm and has the dedication. Orze is someone who fans can root for and move through the minors at a good rate.  

Overall, the Mets had one of the more risky draft classes. Guys like PCA, Ginn, and Greene have all talent in the world but are risks. Then guys like Dyer, Walter, and Orze are safer picks but lack the difference-maker potential. In the end, only time will time with this class. Lots of talent, lots of risks.

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