Written By: Evan Kokocinski
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Chase Burns is a sturdy RHP out of Wake Forest with legitimate top 5 stuff. He stands 6’3 and weighs in just above 210 lbs. Boasting a fastball that touches triple digits paired with a mid grade changeup with potential and a deadly slider that generates over a 60% swing and miss rate, Chase Burns is a must watch this college baseball season.
Fastball: 70 Grade
Burns is able to throw his fastball for strikes, there is no question about that. His command is spotty but will get by against most college bats. Sitting mid 90s with the ability to kiss 102 mph is a nice weapon that many Major League pitching labs would love to perfect over time. Burns exemplifies a decent amount of arm side run which will generate weak contact and allows his slider shape to be very effective. I see his fastball grading out at a 65 with some room to improve on the command side of things. When he does hone it in, it’s easily a 70-grade fastball.
Changeup: 65 Grade
Chase Burns’ changeup is definitely his tertiary option off the mound, but that does not mean it isn’t an effective pitch for the potential top 5 pick. Sitting high 80’s, it provides enough speed differential to hinder timing of average hitters. Its movement is spotty but shows flashes of being elite. I have no doubt in my mind that a major league team could unlock a seriously deadly third pitch for Chase Burns’ arsenal, but for now, I’ll say it’s about a 55-grade changeup with potential to move up to a 65 grade.
Slider: 80 Grade
Hitters…beware. This pitch is Burns’ bread and butter. He simply gets outside the ball and lets this pitch rip. Andrew Bailey, Red Sox pitching coach, teaches a slider variation he named the “bullet slider” and this pitch is very similar to Bailey’s rendition. Upper 80s in speed with incredible bite, this pitch is so fun to watch as a spectator (not from the box). As it sits right now, I firmly believe Burns’ could get both right and left handed big league bats to swing over this pitch and when he inevitably gets tweaked by a professional eye this has a top 10 slider in the big leagues potential. We will call it a 70 for now but I foresee this becoming an 80 grade within the next few summers.
Control: 65 Grade
Burns is a fun prospect to grade. He has his wild moments, but I do believe his control issues are blown out of proportion. With the talent he possesses and his ability to improve other aspects of his game, I have no doubt Chase Burns can learn control at the professional level. The kid is 21 years old throwing 102 whenever he wants to, the ball is going to fly sometimes. Give this young a watch sometime and you’ll agree that the sky’s the limit. 55 grade control for now, with room to improve up to a very respectable 65.
Conclusion & Comparison
Chase Burns reminds me a bit of Dylan Cease, and coincidentally, I think the Chicago White Sox at 5 have a really good chance at snagging their Dylan Cease replacement. Cease can get wild at times but the slider/fastball combination will always play. Similar builds and pitch mixes might mean Cease is a glimpse into the future for Chase Burns. I believe Dylan Cease’s 2022 season where he posted a 2.20 ERA with 11.1 SO/9 is where I imagine Burns’ ceiling lies. The only reason I foresee Burns falling to 5 is the murmurs of control issues, the strong offensive class, and a potential issue going deep into big league games. Overall, Burns is a 60-grade arm to me with the potential to flourish into an elite starter. He comes with an enormous ceiling and a volatile floor. In theory, his control issues could never be fine-tuned and a third elite pitch may never come to fruition, but I just can’t envision it. Chase Burns will be the first arm taken off the board in 2024, and rightfully so.
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