Written By: Drake Mann
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Twins No. 4 Prospect Trevor Larnach OF – Pensecola Blue Wahoos (AA)
23 Years Old – Throws: R – Bats: R – 6’4″ – 233 lbs – ETA: 2021
| Hit | Raw Power | Power | Field | Arm | Speed | FV |
| 50/60 | 60/60 | 45/55 | 40/40 | 55/55 | 40/40 | 50 |
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | SB | CS | K% | BB% |
| .309 | .384 | .458 | .842 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 22.9% | 10.5% |
| ISO | wRC+ | SwStr% | GB% | LD% | FB% | Pull% | Cent% | Oppo% |
| .149 | 148 | 12.4% | 47.3% | 22.9% | 29.7% | 41.2% | 26.1% | 32.8% |
Overview:
Trevor Larnach was drafted 20th overall by the Twins in 2018 and after being one of the more consistent bats for Oregon state from 2016-18, he hit .311/.428/.517 with 22 home runs and a .945 OPS in 622 plate appearances. On top of that, while Larnach had a 21.5 K%, he had a 15.4 BB%. Larnach has advanced quickly through the minors, making it as far as Double-A Pensacola, and has hit at each level of the minors.
Hit: 50/60
I’ll admit when I first graded Larnach’s hit tool I completely undervalued it. Larnach’s hit tool has plus-plus potential. He has a natural ability to hit and with his combination of bat speed and bat control he has arguably the best hit tool in the Twins system. Larnach has an act for barreling up baseballs and hits to all fields well, just look at this spray chart.
Something that Larnach does better than anyone in the Twins system is he controls the strike zone well and takes his walks. He has a career 10.8 BB% in the minors while having a .385 on-base percentage in 719 plate appearances. When fully matured Larnach should hit for a high average while getting on-base at a nice rate as well.
Power: 45/55
During his time at Oregon State, Larnach never showed any home run potential until 2018 where he hit 19 home runs. However, he was more of a gap-to-gap power hitter who was an extra-base hit machine, hitting for 59 extra-base hits across three seasons. Now in 2021, Larnach has 25 home run potential and the Twins have started tweaking with his swing mechanics to ensure the power shows. Larnach was already using his hips to create torque but his swing was flat at times that created the consistent groundball contact.
Swing Changes:
Take a look at the differences, this was Larnach during his time at Oregon State
This is Larnach in 2019 hitting at Single-A Fort Myers
He’s not only added a leg kick but his stance is more straight-up and he has lowered his hands, which has added more loft to his swing and will help him add more power to his game. If the power continues to progress for Larnach he will be a nice run producer for the Twins.
Here’s one more video on Larnach from 2020
This one shows a few more small changes as he closed his stance just a bit and is now quiet in the box but the load and swing path remain the same this could just help with recognizing spin and getting better timing in the box.
On the other end, Larnach does still hit the ball on the ground a fair amount, if this doesn’t change the power won’t be as consistent, when he reaches the majors.
Speed: 40/40
Larnach has below-average speed and isn’t aggressive on the base paths, so he’ll never really be a threat to steal bases but he is a smart baserunner and isn’t a liability on the base paths.
Defense: 40/40 – Arm: 55/55
Trevor Larnach is limited to a corner outfield role due to his below-average fielding and range in the outfield. He does profile more as right-fielder with his above-average arm strength and accuracy. However, the Twins could use Larnach as a DH when he fully develops and is starting for the Twins.
Summary: 50 FV
Trevor Larnach was a premier talent at Oregon State and was consistently good with the bat, through his first couple years in pro-ball that hasn’t changed at all as he’s a career .307/.385/.468 hitter with 18 home runs across two seasons. I see similarities in Larnach’s tools to current Reds outfielder Nick Castellanos, both hit for a high batting average while getting on base at a high rate and are below average defensively.
Overall, his bat will carry him to the majors and with the amount of upside he brings to the table, this is one name that often gets overlooked among outfield prospects in baseball. Nonetheless, Larnach could realistically debut in the majors as a late-season call up in 2021. However, if he showcases a good spring, he could break camp with the Twins. I’m eager to see where he starts and ends in the 2021 season and Twins fans should be excited for what Larnach will bring for 2021 and beyond.
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