Written by: James Clark
Follow him on Twitter: @Coach_Clark
Follow Prospects Worldwide on Twitter: @ProspectsWorldW
With a shortened season, prospects may make a huge difference in playoff races. The contending teams will have incentive to let their prospects play this year, while the teams not in contention will have decisions to make. Here is a list of potential difference makers in the American League. I will be taking a look at the National League soon as well.
Deivi Garcia (New York Yankees)
I admit I may be the high man on Garcia, but his stuff is very good. Normally the diminutive righty would probably spend a few months plying his trade in Triple-A before getting called up to the big club. However with a shortened season and the possibility of needing addition bullpen arms I think the Yankees slot Garcia in as a long reliever. His deceptive fastball will play up out of the bullpen. His 70-grade curveball should help him bring his elite strikeout rates to the majors in short order. The command is average, but will not be a huge factor in the bullpen as he hones it. I believe he will slot into the rotation in 2021, mostly because he has three plus or better pitches. There is some reliever risk with his size, but his minor league track record suggests he can settle in as a No. 2 starter.
Overall grade: 70
Command: 50
FB: 60
CB: 70
CH: 45/50
SL: 60
Jesus Luzardo (Oakland A’s)
This is the obvious one as he’s already in the rotation, but at this time last year he was one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. The lefty should dominate from the get go with a high-90’s fastball that he can throw to both sides of the plate. He has a power curveball and a diving changeup to go along with plus command. The injury risk is higher than with most others on this list, but the upside is certainly that of an ace.
Overall grade: 70
Command: 65/70
FB: 70
CB: 70
CH: 60
A.J. Puk (Oakland A’s)
It seems like he should be off this list by now, but Puk worked his way back from 2018 Tommy John surgery and looks to pick up where he left off. The lefty has an upper-90’s fastball that he throws at an angle. At 6’7”, his height provides some long levers, but also creates a bit of shaky command. Puk’s slider is also a major weapon and should be a true put-away pitch. He also throws an average to above average changeup. Puk can mix in the occasional curveball, but it is not yet a plus offering.
Overall grade: 65
Command: 50
FB: 70
SL: 70
CH: 55
CB: 45
Forrest Whitley (Houston Astros)
Nobody has fallen quite as far as Whitley has since last year, when he was in the discussion as the top pitching prospect in baseball. His command went away for most of the year, but seemingly came back in the Arizona Fall League where he was dominant once again. I am betting on a bounce-back as some of the command issues can be attributed to shoulder fatigue that led to mechanical issues. His fastball is plus, but also a pitch that his command wavers on. His commands his offspeed pitches better with all three being plus offerings. He has an excellent changeup that he commands well. His slider and curveball are both swing-and-miss pitches. His stuff is up there with the best of them, but the risk and variance push him down from atop the prospect list. Even with no clear path to a rotation spot with Jose Urquidy passing him up and Cristian Javier hot on his tail, I think the Astros will use him as they need to make the playoffs this year with all of the bad press from the off-season.
Overall grade: 65
Command: 55
FB: 70
SL: 65
CH: 65
CB: 60
Nate Pearson (Toronto Blue Jays)
The only thing holding Pearson back is the fact that the young Blue Jays may not be quite ready to compete in the AL East. I think they start his clock this year since they have already called up most of their young players. His triple-digit fastball is one of the hardest in baseball and is his best pitch. His secondaries are inconsistent, but his slider flashes plus at times. His changeup and curveball are still works in progress, but if he can get one of them to above average he will have a long career barring injuries. His fastball gives him some leeway with his other pitches and the floor is probably elite closer with the ceiling being an ace.
Overall grade: 65
Command: 55
FB: 70
SL: 60
CH: 45
CB: 45
Michael Kopech (Chicago White Sox)
The White Sox are a young team that could sneak into the playoffs this year, especially in the weaker AL Central. Kopech may be the difference maker, if he can pitch to his potential. He already has had some success at the MLB level and would probably already be the South Siders’ ace if he hadn’t undergone Tommy John surgery in 2018. His triple-digit fastball is his best pitch, but he also features a plus slider. His changeup is above average with potential for a bit more and he throws an average curveball sporadically. His command wavers and usually comes last when recovering from elbow surgery, but a step in the right direction would almost certainly give him a chance to reach his ace upside.
Overall grade: 65
Command: 55
FB: 70
SL: 60
CH: 50/55
CB: 45
Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros)
Despite the dominant game he pitched in the 2019 postseason, Urquidy probably maxes out as a No. 3 or No. 4 starting pitcher. The 25-year-old righty has plus command on a mid-90’s fastball and he has a plus changeup. His slider is the pitch that will make or break him, as it flashed as a plus put away pitch in the playoffs. If he can continue the progression of the slider, he could take another step in his development.
Overall grade: 60
Command: 65
FB: 60
SL: 55
CH: 60
CB: 45
Brendan McKay (Tampa Bay Rays)
The Rays have a strong pitching staff and it is not clear where McKay fits in, especially with their penchant to use an opener. He may be one of the bulk relievers in the mold of Ryan Yarbrough for this season or a spot starter and reliever. His future seems to be on the mound, after trying his hand at being a two-way player early in his career. McKay flashes plus command and throws a mid-90’s heater. He has an above average curveball with plus potential. His cutter is average, but he still has some upside on the mound.
Overall grade: 55/60
Command: 60
FB: 55
CB: 60
CU: 45
Randy Dobnak (Minnesota Twins)
Dobnak should have a decent chance at a rotation spot this year after a successful late season call-up in 2019. He struggled in a playoff start against the Yankees, but showed enough to be in the mix this season. He throws a mid-90’s sinker and a mid-80’s slider. He adds an average changeup, but his best asset is his above average command. He does face some competition from Devin Smeltzer and possibly Lewis Thorpe, but I think his profile makes him a safe bet to stay on the squad this year with expanded rosters.
Overall grade: 55
Command: 60
FB: 55
SL: 55
CH: 45
Devin Smeltzer (Minnesota Twins)
Smeltzer may hold a slight advantage over Randy Dobnak for a rotation spot, especially in the future. Smeltzer is left-handed and has a 60 grade changeup that gets swings and misses. His fastball only sits in the upper-80’s, but his lower arm slot gives him some movement and deception. He also has a big breaker and throws all three pitches with above average command. He may slot behind Dobnak for the immediate future, but will also surely be one of the first up if Dobnak falters.
Overall grade: 55
Command: 60
FB: 50
CU: 55
CH: 60
Patrick Sandoval (Los Angeles Angels)
Sandoval has a leg up on the fifth spot in the rotation and will surely have a roster spot even if he does not. As with most of the guys at the bottom of this list his secondaries outpace his fastball and he will need a tick up in the command department to achieve sustained success. His changeup is his best weapon, but he also has an above average curveball. His fastball and slider could still use some work and the profile is that of a back-end starter at present, but he does still have some upside if the command or fastball improve.
Overall grade: 55
Command: 50
FB: 50
CU: 55
CH: 60
SL: 45
Anthony Kay (Toronto Blue Jays)
Kay might have a slightly better chance of pitching for the Blue Jays this year than Pearson, although I think they both have a role. Kay already had a cup of coffee last year and held his own. His fastball sits in the mid-90’s and he has an average changeup and curveball. His commands comes and goes, but he does still have some projection if he can be more consistent.
Overall grade: 55
Command: 55
FB: 55
CU: 55
CH: 50
Justus Sheffield (Seattle Mariners)
Sheffield has been around awhile and already has MLB experience. The Mariners don’t have a ton of rotation depth so if he falters they may be forced to give Logan Gilbert a chance. I think they stall Gilbert if at all possible so they can save him for the window they have coming with top position prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez waiting in the wings. Sheffield has a mid-90’s fastball to pair with an above average slider. He also has an average changeup and command. His future may be in the bullpen, but I think he gets a crack at the rotation in the near term.
Overall grade: 55
Command: 55
FB: 55
SL: 55/60
CH: 50
Guys I don’t think come up this year, even though they may deserve to: Matt Manning (Detroit Tigers), Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers), Tarik Skubal (Detroit Tigers), Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)